How many posts about how to become a investment master, especially recent time between craziest February to May. I have to admit to this. Yes, I’m one of the many. This post is more like prevent me from being cocky and record everything I found in the path.

All the failures and success has their meaning, but without the notes, I won’t learn anything.

Stock

Holding

10 W in total Target to different categorical:

Coal/Pipe/Oil
1. COP
2. ARLP
3. PPA
SW service
1. DLX
2. SYF
3. ADS
Financial service
1. DFS
2. CMA

ARLP

Future-Plan to buy in

PAA

There are 3 main services provided by the PAA: 
- Transportation
- Storage
- Supply/logistic


37 million barrels + 15k mileages pipe line


Under same corporation, there's brother company PAGP
 Financial statements
Stay above 15% ROE on recent 4 yrs. Re-investment ratio 60%. 

Potential impact:

Due to incoming global recession, oil, coal, natural gas requirements are decreasing. Need the different value estimate on PAA.

Gold

Currency != Money, that’s all idea come from. There are few assumption make here:

Money supply is increasing
Stock will go low in the crisis
Gold supply/Demand stay stable.

Money Supply

source: tradingeconomics.com

This graph shows the m0 supply in past 25 years. 2008, 2013,2020 are three different turning points, and they represent 3 Great recession. Following question is where the currency goes?

Stock will go low- Do we hit the bottom?

Did the Stock Market Bottom? explains well about the moment.

The stock market follows economic activities
During the past recession, the stock market crashed ~ 50%
It took few hundred days for the stock market to go from peak to the bottom

Here’s the extra factors at this time, Covid-19. Even in the best case, it still need to take years to distribute vaccine to most relevant countires, which include some poor countries.

Gold supply and demend.

The last factor is inevitable to be discussed. Even we believe the 2 assumptions above, any goods/real estate can be the option. For example, oil is something necessary for most industrial, but price is going to crash in Feburary.

Because the demand and supply play essential role in price. Oil demend&supply

Oil supply isn’t something stable, the amount of supply increses steadly over years.

Gold dmend & supply ### Update 2020/12/18 It’s funny. Booming Knowledge flow into my head. Gold is not the only value preserve asset.

Sum up

Let’s talk if we agree the assumptions. We should know the currency need to find the exit, the real estate/money/stock is the primary ways for inflation.

Refer this channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCThv5tYUVaG4ZPA3p6EXZbQ

Still has some questions:

No doubt, the gold is shiny and attractive, however, it doesn’t have huge amout of requirements for the varieties of industry. Who or when the gold was becoming “moeny”?
There’s somewhere else for the money goes. I must investigate real estate price during past recessions. If the price going up, the real estate ETF can be another part of portfolio.

Don’t predict the price. The idea comes from Howard marks. We can follow some calculation to estimate intrinsic value of any assets. But it’s pointless to predict when it happens.
Don’t judge the good/bad decision by the performance(at least short time)

公債數量的極限- 政府可以釋放多少$$

週期可能徵詔

信貸違約 03 .net泡沫並未出現房屋違約率陡增. -> 企業貸款違約率比較可能發生.

Terminology Section

P/B asset - liability = owner’s equity
debt v.s. cash It’s very bitter this moment. ARLP, which is one stock of my portfolio ,has terrible number on the index. 25 cash versus 800 debt. Nonetheless, debt isn’t good indicator, at least isn’t good single number to outline the company. 67Debt ignore the long/short term time relationship.
Bankrupt Short answer: Bankruptcy is bad Median answer: Bankruptcy is the legal process for companies or individuals when they can’t pay their debts
Asset v.s equity Assets= Liabilities + Equity asset 資產, equity 產權.

Portfolio

Review and Record.